GigaOM’s recent article on the growth of the iPad and overall tablet-related OS market inspired me to take their forecasts one step further- actual profit estimates through 2015 per major player in the article.
My forecasts are indeed rough, but attribute higher and lower profits to the various vendors based on the nature of their product, likely price point and direct or indirect control they will have over the actual distribution of their platform. For example, Android is expected to be heavily partnered for their distribution (the upcoming Kindle is just one example), this implies lower profit per unit. Meanwhile, Apple with their early market lead and total control over the tablet sales implies higher profit per unit sold. Regardless, these are rough estimates, but fascinating to consider. Most incredible is the forecast showing that Apple will generate roughly 2/3rds of all profits in the space in 2015.
This is intended to be a fun look at the market. Forecasts like this should be taken with several grains of salt since it is a rapidly evolving space.
Tablet OS related profit estimates by year
| OS | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| iOS – Apple | $1.8B | $4.7B | $5.5B | $7.6B | $7.3B | $8.9B |
| Android – Google | $0.2B | $0.7B | $0.9B | $2.2B | $2.6B | $3.5B |
| Microsoft | $0.0B | $0.3B | $0.2B | $0.7B | $0.9B | $1.3B |
| QNX – RIM | $0.0B | $0.2B | $0.3B | $0.5B | $0.6B | $0.8B |
| MeeGo – Intel, Nokia | $0.0B | $0.0B | $0.0B | $0.0B | $0.0B | $0.0B |
| WebOS – HP | $0.0B | $0.1B | $0.0B | $0.0B | $0.0B | $0.0B |
| Other | $0.0B | $0.0B | $0.0B | $0.0B | $0.0B | $0.0B |
Cheers,
Stephen McDaniel
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Tags: Analyst · Consumer · Forecasting · Graphs · Insights · Marketing · Tablet · Tech · ThoughtsNo Comments
Posted on September 24th, 2011 by
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